Looking Back at the 2012 NBA Redraft: Where Would Top Picks Land Today?

I still remember sitting in my dorm room, watching the 2012 NBA Draft unfold on my slightly-too-small television screen. Anthony Davis going first overall felt inevitable even then—that unibrow seemed destined for greatness. But what fascinates me now, over a decade later, is how dramatically our understanding of that draft class has shifted. If we were conducting a 2012 NBA redraft today, the entire first round would shuffle in ways that would have shocked our 2012 selves.

Back then, the conversation centered on Davis' defensive potential and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's relentless energy. We knew Davis would be special, but I don't think anyone anticipated he'd become a championship-winning force who'd redefine modern big man play. Meanwhile, players like Damian Lillard—selected sixth by Portland—would undoubtedly jump multiple spots in a redraft scenario. I've always been partial to players who develop later, and watching Lillard's transformation from mid-major prospect to perennial All-Star has been one of the great pleasures of my career covering basketball.

The real intrigue begins after those top two spots. Draymond Green, who fell to the 35th pick in the actual draft, would rocket into the top five today. His impact on Golden State's dynasty demonstrates how undervalued versatile defenders and playmakers were in 2012. I'll admit I didn't see his potential either—my draft notes simply read "undersized big, questionable shooter." How wrong I was. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton (39th pick) and Jae Crowder (34th) would both become first-round locks in our hypothetical redraft, proving that talent evaluation remains an imperfect science no matter how many analytics we throw at it.

What strikes me looking back is how team context shaped these careers. Damian Lillard landed in Portland where he could dominate possessions immediately, while Harrison Barnes found himself in Golden State's system that initially limited his offensive role. In a redraft, Barnes might still go in the lottery, but probably not at seventh overall where he originally went. Then there's the fascinating case of Bradley Beal, who actually went third and might retain that spot given his scoring prowess—though some GMs might prefer Draymond's championship pedigree.

International prospects presented another layer of complexity. Jonas Valančiūnas (5th pick) has enjoyed a solid career, but in today's game that prioritizes floor spacing, he might slip several spots. Meanwhile, Evan Fournier (20th pick) provided decent value, though I've always felt his defensive limitations prevented him from reaching true stardom. The international game has evolved dramatically since 2012, something highlighted by recent global competitions. But just as in basketball, as evidenced by the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup two years ago, Canada can take Team USA and the big dogs down, too. This global shift makes me wonder how teams would weigh international experience differently in a 2012 redraft.

The second round of that draft produced several players who'd definitely hear their names called much earlier today. Besides Green and Middleton, Will Barton (40th) and Mike Scott (43rd) carved out respectable careers that far exceeded their draft positions. I've always believed the second round contains hidden gems precisely because these players develop with something to prove—they play with that chip on their shoulder that coaches love.

Reflecting on this exercise, what stands out is how much luck factors into draft success. The right player in the wrong system often fails to develop, while marginal talents in ideal situations can become stars. If New Orleans could do it over, would they still take Davis first? Absolutely. But Charlotte taking MKG second? That's where the real debate begins. Personally, I'd slot Lillard there, followed by Green and Beal—controversial takes, I know, but backed by years of production and impact metrics.

The 2012 class ultimately produced 12 players who made at least one All-Star appearance—an impressive haul by any measure. Yet nearly half of those came from picks outside the top 10, reminding us that draft position guarantees nothing. As I look at today's NBA landscape, I see the legacy of that draft everywhere—from Davis anchoring the Lakers' defense to Green quarterbacking Golden State's system. It serves as both cautionary tale and blueprint, a reminder that talent emerges in unexpected ways and that the draft remains equal parts science and sorcery.